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Building Confidence Index improves for the third consecutive quarter

24 March 2017

The First National Bank (FNB)/Bureau for Economic Research (BER) Building Confidence Index improved for the third consecutive quarter, rising by three points to 43 in the first quarter of this year.This marks the highest confidence in more than a year, FNB property economist John Loos said on Thursday.

“However, even though confidence improved, the current level of the index indicates that most respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions,” he pointed out.According to the survey, the fall in residential contractor confidence was on the back of weaker building activity and keener tendering price competition.

Although the confidence of non-residential contractors remained largely unchanged, this was not supported by the underlying indicators.“Building activity and overall profitability fell sharply and are at their worst levels since early- to mid-2011. This suggests that the sector is in deep distress and that confidence should have been much lower,” noted Loos.

Building materials manufacturer confidence registered the biggest jump, from 10 to 25 index points in the first quarter.

“Domestic and export sales fared well during the quarter and the jump in confidence is supported. However, looking at the rest of the building sector, it is difficult to pinpoint where these goods are being used,” stated Loos.

Building materials manufacturer confidence registered the biggest jump, from 10 to 25 index points in the first quarter.

“Domestic and export sales fared well during the quarter and the jump in confidence is supported. However, looking at the rest of the building sector, it is difficult to pinpoint where these goods are being used,” stated Loos.

Business confidence among architects rose to 55 index points during the quarter.

The confidence of quantity surveyors shed three index points to also register a level of 55.After slipping to 29 index points in the fourth quarter of last year, the business confidence of hardware retailers regained eight points to register a level of 37 in the first quarter of this year. 

Overall, after posting mild growth last quarter, output in the total building sector likely contracted.

In contrast, the continued activity at the start of the building pipeline, especially of architects, is seen as cause for optimism. However, whether this translates into higher building activity in subsequent quarters depends on what happens on the broader economic and political front.Building materials manufacturer confidence registered the biggest jump, from 10 to 25 index points in the first quarter.

“Domestic and export sales fared well during the quarter and the jump in confidence is supported. However, looking at the rest of the building sector, it is difficult to pinpoint where these goods are being used,” stated Loos.Business confidence among architects rose to 55 index points during the quarter.

The confidence of quantity surveyors shed three index points to also register a level of 55.

After slipping to 29 index points in the fourth quarter of last year, the business confidence of hardware retailers regained eight points to register a level of 37 in the first quarter of this year. 

Overall, after posting mild growth last quarter, output in the total building sector likely contracted.

In contrast, the continued activity at the start of the building pipeline, especially of architects, is seen as cause for optimism. However, whether this translates into higher building activity in subsequent quarters depends on what happens on the broader economic and political front.

 

 

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